Manav Raj

Manav Raj (2025), Online Information and Offline Performance: The Effect of Broadband Availability on Brick-and-Mortar Retailers, Strategy Science.

Abstract: This research examines how information access affects competition in offline markets. I study the relationship between broadband internet availability and brick-and-mortar retailer survival in the United States from 1999 through 2008, leveraging a period when competition from e-commerce channels was minimal and broadband’s primary effect on retailers stemmed from reduced search costs. Using an instrumental variables estimation strategy that links broadband availability to local slope terrain, I find that broadband availability decreased the likelihood of retailer exit. These effects were more pronounced for retailers that faced higher discovery-related search costs ex ante, specifically young and independent establishments and those in dense or urban markets. The findings suggest that online information access can reshape offline competitive dynamics by altering consumer search and discovery.

Manav Raj, Justin Berg, Rob Seamans (2025), The AI Disclosure Penalty: Humans Persistently Devalue AI-Generated Creative Writing, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General.

Abstract: Although preliminary evidence suggests that humans often react aversely to artificial intelligence (AI)-generated creative works, we have little understanding of how robust or persistent these reactions may be. In a series of 16 preregistered experiments (N = 27,491), we examine how evaluations of creative writing are affected by whether participants believe the content is produced with an AI model. We find consistent evidence of an AI disclosure penalty: Participant evaluations of creative writing decrease when they believe writing samples were written by an AI model—or with the help of one—rather than a human author alone, and this effect is mediated by perceived authenticity. The AI disclosure penalty is sticky, persisting across evaluation metrics, contexts, kinds of written content, and multiple interventions derived from prior research aimed at moderating the effect. Our results indicate that AI disclosure penalties about creative writing may be stubbornly difficult to mitigate, at least at this time.

Manav Raj and J. Eggers (2025), When Delivery Comes to Town: The Effect of Digital Distribution Platform Emergence on Industry Structure and Competition, Strategic Management Journal.

Abstract: Research Summary We explore how the emergence of digital distribution platforms (DDPs), platforms that facilitate transactions between consumers and incumbents, affects industry structure and competition. Studying the effect of delivery platforms on restaurants in the United States from 2012 to 2018, we show that DDP emergence increases exit and concentration and reduces business dynamism. We provide speculative evidence that these changes are driven by both an increase in inter-firm competition as well as increased margin pressure from the platform. We show that strategic positioning shapes how establishments experience such changes to competition and that DDP emergence can cause a revaluation of resources within an establishment's business model. This research documents how technology-enabled intermediaries can disrupt an industry by altering the basis of competition. Managerial Abstract The emergence of platforms like Grubhub or Instacart that connect consumers to existing incumbent establishments can alter industry structure and within-industry competition. We study the effect of delivery platforms on restaurants in the United States and show that the emergence of such platforms has increased exit and concentration within the restaurant industry. We present suggestive evidence that these changes are driven by intensified inter-firm competition and increased margin pressure from the platforms. We then explore which restaurants are better able to weather the emergence of delivery platforms, showing that establishments' strategic positioning and prior investments shape the extent to which delivery platform penetration is beneficial versus detrimental. Through this research, we document how digital distribution platforms can reshape competition within an industry.

Manav Raj (2024), More is (Sometimes) Merrier: Heterogeneity in Demand Spillovers and Competition on a Digital Platform, Strategic Management Journal.

Abstract: Research Summary Platforms create value by connecting users to complementors offering goods or services. Complementors compete on platforms but may also benefit each other by drawing demand to the platform, which may then “spillover” from one complementor to another. This tension raises the question: When are relationships between complementors competitive versus complementary? To help address this question, I apply theory on agglomeration-driven demand spillovers to examine when on-platform demand spillovers created by peer product launch are larger versus smaller. Studying the Spotify platform, I find spillovers are larger, and peer album release more beneficial to an artist, when the peer stimulates greater demand expansion, platform-mediated inter-complementor proximity is higher, and the artist benefits more from consumer learning. Findings extend literature on on-platform competition and inform complementor strategy. Managerial Summary On digital platforms, complementor product launch may hurt peer performance by causing substitution or may benefit peer performance by drawing demand to the platform which may then “spillover” from the complementor to a peer. Studying the Spotify platform, I examine when such spillovers are larger versus smaller, shedding light on when peer product launch is beneficial versus detrimental for complementors competing on digital platforms. On Spotify, demand spillovers are larger, and peer album release more beneficial to an artist, when peer album release draws listeners to the platform, Spotify recommendations connect the artist to the peer, and the artist reaches new or unfamiliar listeners. The findings suggest that, on platforms featuring demand spillovers, complementors can take strategic actions to leverage spillovers and improve performance.

Ed Felten, Manav Raj, Rob Seamans (2024), Generative AI Requires Broad Labor Policy Considerations, Communications of the ACM.

Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI), like other technologies in the past, will likely affect the economy in many ways, potentially stimulating growth and changing the way people work. The effect of AI on work will be multifaceted and will likely vary across occupations and industries.  The public release of tools such as Dall-E 2, which generates digital images from natural language prompts, in September 2022 and ChatGPT, which generates text responses to natural language prompts, in November 2022 has drawn the attention of the general public to progress in generative AI technologies, stimulating excitement in the potential of these technologies, but also concern over potential negative effects on employment. The expanded scope of uses presented by generative AI technologies has raised questions regarding whether such technologies may affect a broader range of occupations, including those that are highly creative. Recent research, including our own and work by the Pew Research Center, suggests there is a strong positive correlation between exposure to generative AI and median salaries, the required level of education, and the presence of creative abilities within an occupation, and that occupations with a higher percent of female or Asian workers are more exposed, whereas occupations with a higher percent of Black or Hispanic workers are less exposed to generative AI. The big unknowns are the conditions under which generative AI will substitute for work previously done by humans, or complement work done by humans (for example, Frank et al. While recent research suggests that generative AI is likely to increase high-skill worker productivity, especially for lower-performing workers (for example, Choi and Schwarcz, Dell’Acqua et al., Noy and Zhang, and Peng et al.), whether and under what conditions generative AI automates vs. augments workers remains an important and, to our knowledge, unanswered question. We highlight two ways in which the government can help address heterogeneous effects from advances in AI. First, statistical agencies should work with academic scholars to develop an understanding about conditions under which AI automates or augments human work. Second, the uncertain and different effects across occupations means initial labor policies need to be flexible and broad-based, not targeted at specific occupations or groups.

John Eklund, Manav Raj, J. Eggers (2024), Attention Focus and New Opportunities: The Moderating Role of Managerial Attention to Alternative Issues, Organization Science.

Abstract: The strategy literature highlights the critical role that managerial attention plays in shaping firms’ responses to industry change. However, attention to change alone is not sufficient to precipitate action. The context in which this attention is paid is also critical in determining the translation of attention to action as managers generally pay attention to multiple issues within their strategic agendas. We argue that attention to a competing issue and the breadth of managerial strategic attention impair the relationship between attention to a focal issue and related organizational action as these attentional constraints may lead to hesitancy or confusion at an individual level and reduced coordination at an organizational level. Realizing that at an organizational level, firms vary tremendously with respect to their sizes, resources, and by implication their overall attentional capacities, we argue that the negative moderation impacts of attention to a competing issue and the breadth of strategic attention on the attention to a focal issue–subsequent action relationship are larger for smaller firms. Studying the U.S. electric utility industry and the emerging new distributed electricity generation business model, we find broad support for our arguments and also important nuance. By melding theory, important details of our empirical setting, and intriguing empirical results, we develop greater insights into when and how the other strategic issues to which managers pay attention can shape the translation of managerial attention to a new business model into subsequent organizational action.

Deepak Hegde, Alexander Ljungqvist, Manav Raj (2022), Quick or Broad Patents? Evidence from U.S. Startups, Review of Financial Studies.

Abstract: We study the effects of patent scope and review times on startups and externalities on their rivals. We leverage the quasi-random assignment of U.S. patent applications to examiners and find that grant delays reduce a startup’s employment and sales growth, chances of survival, access to external capital, and future innovation. Delays also harm the growth, access to external capital, and follow-on innovation of the patentee’s rivals, suggesting that quick patents enhance both inventor rewards and generate positive externalities. Broader scope increases a startup’s future growth (conditional on survival) and innovation but imposes negative externalities on its rivals’ growth and innovation.

Edward Felten, Manav Raj, Robert Seamans (2021), Occupational, Industry, and Geographic Exposure to Artificial Intelligence: A Novel Dataset and Its Potential Uses, Strategic Management Journal.

Abstract: We create and validate a new measure of an occupation's exposure to AI that we call the AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE). We use the AIOE to construct a measure of AI exposure at the industry level, which we call the AI Industry Exposure (AIIE) and a measure of AI exposure at the county level, which we call the AI Geographic Exposure (AIGE). We also describe several ways in which the AIOE can be used to create firm level measures of AI exposure. We validate the measures and describe how they can be used in different applications by management, organization and strategy scholars.

Manav Raj (2021), A House Divided: Legislative Competition and Young Firm Survival in the United States, Strategic Management Journal.

Abstract: Features of the institutional environment influence the performance of firms. In this research, I examine how one aspect of the institutional environment, competition between parties within legislatures, relates to young firm mortality. I argue that higher legislative competition provides legislators with more power to reward favored interests and thus contributes to a competitive environment that benefits well-connected incumbents and imposes negative consequences on young firms. Using data on state legislature composition in the United States and both an ordinary least squares and instrumental variables empirical strategy, I find that legislative competition has a positive relationship with young firm mortality and this relationship is partially mediated by incentives that favor incumbents. In doing so, I highlight that political competition can have negative consequences for some firms.

Edward Felten, Manav Raj, Robert Seamans (2019), The Effect of Artificial Intelligence on Human Labor: An Ability-Based Approach, Academy of Management Proceedings.

Abstract: While artificial intelligence (AI) promises to spur economic growth, there is concern that this may come at the expense of human labor. We utilize data on advances in AI together with occupational definitions to construct an occupation-level measure of the impact of AI, and use this measure to investigate whether and under what circumstances AI may act as a substitute or a complement to labor. We provide broad evidence that occupations impacted by AI may see a decline in wages, but growth in employment, and that this is particularly the case for occupations with complementary skills & technologies. In addition, high-income occupations experience a growth in employment, suggesting that AI may exacerbate inequality.