Ph.D. Yale University, 1979 (Psychology);
M.A. University of British Columbia, 1976;
B.A. University of British Columbia, 1975;
2011 -present Leonore Annenberg University Professor, School of Arts and Sciences (Psychology) and Wharton School (Management), University of Pennsylvania;
2002- 2010 Mitchell Endowed Professorship, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley;
2005-2006 Russell Sage Scholar;
1996-2001 Harold Burtt Professor of Psychology and Political Science, The Ohio State University;
1993-1994 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford;
1993-1995 Distinguished Professor, University of California, Berkeley;
1988-1995 Director, Institute of Personality and Social Research, University of California, Berkeley;
1987-1996 Professor, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley;
1984-1987 Associate Professor, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley;
1980-1995 Research Psychologist, Survey Research Center, University of California, Berkeley;
1979-1984 Assistant Professor, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley;
Group Chair, Organizational Behavior and Industrial Relations, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, 2002-present;
Associate Dean for Academic Affairs, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, 2003-2004;
Director, Ph.D. programs, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley;
Director, Institute of Personality Assessment and Research (renamed in 1992 as Institute of Personality and Social Research), University of California, Berkeley, 1988-1995.
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015)
Barbara Mellers, Eric Stone, Terry Murray, Angela Minster, Nick Rohrbaugh, Michael Bishop, Eva Chen, Joshua Baker, Yuan Hou, Michael Horowitz, Lyle Ungar, Philip Tetlock (2015), Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions, Perspectives on Psychological Science.
Mandeep Dhami, David Mandel, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock (2015), Improving Intelligence Analysis with Decision Science, Perspectives on Psychological Science.
Edgar Merkle, Mark Steyvers, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock (2015), Item Response Models of Probability Judgments: Application to a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament, decision.
Jonathan Baron, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock, Eric Stone, Lyle Ungar (2015), Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme, Decision Analysis.
Ville Satopää, Shane T. Jensen, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar (2014), Probability Aggregation in Time-Series: Dynamic Hierarchical Modeling of Sparse Expert Beliefs, The Annals of Statistics, 8 (2), pp. 1256-1280.
Barbara Mellers, Lyle Ungar, Jonathan Baron, Jaime Ramos, Burcu Gurcay, Katrina Fincher, Sydney Scott, Don Moore, Pavel Atanasov, Samuel Swift, Terry Murray, Eric Stone, Philip Tetlock (2014), Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament, Psychological Science.
Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock, Nick Rohrbaugh, Eva Chen (2014), Forecasting Tournaments: Tools for Increasing Transparency and Improving the Quality of Debate, Current Directions in Psychological Science.
Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers (2014), Judging political judgment, PNAS.
This course will explore the diverse ways in which scholars and practitioners have defined "good judgment." And it will introduce students to practical tools for assessing and improving judgment, with special emphasis on probabilistic reasoning. Students will have the opportunity both to fine-tune their personal judgment skills as well as to master and then weave together insights from several bodies of scientific knowledge, including frequentist and Bayesian statistics, psychological work on judgment and choice, group dynamics, organizational behavior and political science (key concepts discussed in Tetlock's (2015) book "Superforecasting"). We will focus on bottom-line accuracy in sizing up real world problems. Class work will be primarily exercises, including working as an individual and in teams. You will have opportunities to forecast on a wide range of political, business, and macro-economic questions, which we will use as feedback tools to help you calibrate your judgment. Assessments include a weekly concept test and a final group presentation aimed to help you improve your judgment. The goal is to launch you on the lifelong process of learning how much trust you should place in your judgments of trustworthiness. Finally, note this has been approved by the Curriculum Committee effective 11/11/15.
This seminar-based course, with active discussion and analysis, is required of all first-year doctoral students in Management and open to other Penn students with instructor permission. The purpose of this course is to examine and understand basics in the theory and empirical research in the field of micro and macro organizational behavior and to build an understanding of people's behavior in organizations and across organizations. The course covers a blend of classic and contemporary literature so that we can appreciate the prevailing theories and findings in various areas of macro and micro-organizational behavior. Half the course covers micro-organizational behavior, focused on topics such as influence/status, virtual teams, job design, organizational culture and socialization, identity in organizations and overall look on where the field of micro-organizational behavior is going. Half the course covers macro-organizational behavior, covering the topics of organizational ecology, institutional theory, organizational status and reputation, impression management, social networks and social movements.
This is a complement course to MGMT 951, and it has the same purpose to examineand understand basics in the theory and empirical research in the field of micro-organizational behavior and to increase our understanding of people's behavior in organizations. To do so, we will cover a blend of classic and contemporary literature so that we can appreciate the prevailing theories and findings in various areas of micro-organizational behavior. In addition, for each topic we will then try to go beyond the existing literature. We will work to increase our understanding by re-framing the research variables, altering the perspective, bringing in new theory, and comparing levels of analysis. The purpose of this course is not meant to be exhaustive, rather it covers approximately half of the organizational behavior literature. For a more complete understanding of the basics of organizational behavior it is mandatory for organizational behavior students to have taken MGMT 951 which covers the remaining topics in basic organizational behavior. However, it is not mandatory to have taken MGMT 951 before MGMT 961 as they cover different sets of topics.
This course will explore psychological approaches to understanding political beliefs, attitudes, and actions at the levels of both individual citizens and national leaders. It will also explore the possibility that psychological science itself is not immune to the political debates swirling around it. Specific topics will include: the workings of belief systems (and their power to shape what we "see"), cognitive biases (and their power to cause miscalculations), sacred values and their role in stabilizing belief systems and social interaction, personality and ideology (the linkages between the personal and the political), and clashing conceptions of morality and distributive and corrective justice (striking variations among people in what they consider to be fair). We shall also explore some topics that have sparked controversy in the psychological research literature and that tend to polarize opinion along political lines, including work on intelligence and unconscious bias. Prerequisite: Note: Students who are more interested in business-related issues may want Wharton 276x which is a modified version of this course specifically for Wharton undergraduates.
Individual research involving data collection. Students do independent empirical work under the supervision of a faculty member, leading to a written paper. Normally taken in the junior or senior year.
This seminar will be a series of engaging discussions on a variety of topics that are important to the field of behavioral decision theory. We'll cover issues such as constructed preferences, loss aversion, nudging, emotions, well-being, other-oriented decisions, intuitive predictions, unethical choices,and more. Students will be asked to present papers and generate ideas for potential research projects each week. Grades will be based on class contributions and a paper that is either a literature review or a careful and detailed proposal for a research project.
Choice of half or full course units each sem. covering a range of subjects and approaches in academic psychology.
With some 38,000 U.S. automobile deaths a year, self-driving cars are poised to boost safety considerably. But recent fatal accidents show there is a long way to go.Knowledge @ Wharton - 7/6/2018
Our best pundits don’t have a solid track record. So how can the rest of us become better forecasters?Wharton Magazine - 04/20/2016