MGMT776 - Cultiv Judgment Skills
A world-class poker player defined the difference between serious players and amateurs this way: serious players know the difference between 40-60 and 60-40 propositions. In other words, serious players are well calibrated (skilled at distinguishing what they know from what they don't). This course gives you chances to explore how well calibrated you are in a low-risk setting. The course should appeal to students with interests in strategy, international business, political-risk analysis, and the managerial challenges of maximizing the judgmental accuracy of key personnel. The class will pit its wits against competitors in a global-forecasting tournament sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) - as well as design forecasting exercises around your individual career and business plans. Key challenges include: (a) learning to translate "interesting questions" into "testable propositions," (b) getting into the habit of translating vague hunches into probability metrics and making good use of feedback on how well calibrated you are, (c) applying tools for enhancing accuracy, (d) making solo forecasts - and exploring methods of making team forecast more than the sum of their individual-contributor parts.