Photo of Philip Tetlock

Philip Tetlock

Leonore Annenberg University Professor in Democracy and Citizenship

Professor of Management

Professor of Psychology

Research Interests: social and cultural psychology, decision processes

Links: CV, Personal Website, Department of Psychology

Contact Information

Address: 3203 SH-DH, 3620 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104
Office: (215) 573-4923 (215) 746-8541
Office Fax: (215) 898-0401



Ph.D. Yale University, 1979 (Psychology); M.A. University of British Columbia, 1976; B.A. University of British Columbia, 1975;

Academic Experience

2011 -present Leonore Annenberg University Professor, School of Arts and Sciences (Psychology) and Wharton School (Management), University of Pennsylvania; 2002- 2010 Mitchell Endowed Professorship, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley; 2005-2006 Russell Sage Scholar; 1996-2001 Harold Burtt Professor of Psychology and Political Science, The Ohio State University; 1993-1994 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford; 1993-1995 Distinguished Professor, University of California, Berkeley; 1988-1995 Director, Institute of Personality and Social Research, University of California, Berkeley; 1987-1996 Professor, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley; 1984-1987 Associate Professor, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley; 1980-1995 Research Psychologist, Survey Research Center, University of California, Berkeley; 1979-1984 Assistant Professor, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley;

Administrative Experience

Group Chair, Organizational Behavior and Industrial Relations, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, 2002-present; Associate Dean for Academic Affairs, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, 2003-2004; Director, Ph.D. programs, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley; Director, Institute of Personality Assessment and Research (renamed in 1992 as Institute of Personality and Social Research), University of California, Berkeley, 1988-1995.


  • Ville Satopää, Jonathan Baron, Dean P. Foster, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock, Lyle Ungar (2014), Combining Multiple Probability Predictions Using a Simple Logit Model, International Journal of Forecasting, 30 (2), 344 - 356.  Abstract
  • Shefali Patil, Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers (Under Review), Accountability systems and distributive justice norms: When do people adhere too much or stray too far from decision rules? .
  • Philip Tetlock, Ferdinand Vieider, Shefali Patil, Adam Grant (2013), Accountability and ideology: When left looks right and right looks left, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 122, 22 - 35.  
  • Shefali Patil, Ferdinand Vieider, Philip Tetlock, "Process and outcome accountability". In Oxford Handbook of Public Accountability, edited by Mark Bovens, Robert E. Goodin, Thomas Schillemans, (2012).  Abstract
  • Philip Tetlock (2011), Intelligent management of intelligence analysis: Escaping the blame game by signaling commitment to trans-ideological epistemic values, American Psychologist
  • Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock (2011), Intelligent management of intelligence agencies: Escaping the accountability blame game by signaling commitment to trans-ideological epistemic values., American Psychologist
  • Philip Tetlock, W. T. Self, R. Singh (2010), The punitiveness paradox: When is external pressure exculpatory – And when a signal just to spread blame?, Experimental Social Psychology, 46: 388-395.  Abstract
  • L. J. Kray, L. G. George, K. A. Liljenquist, A. D. Galinsky, Philip Tetlock, N. J. Roese (2010), From what might have been to what must have been: Counterfactual thinking creates meaning, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology  Abstract
  • Philip Tetlock, G. Mitchell (2010), Situated social identities constrain morally-defensible choices: Commentary on Bennis, Medin, & Bartels, Perspectives in Psychological Science, 5: 206-208.
  • Barbara Mellers, M. P. Haselhuhn, Philip Tetlock, Alice M. Isen (2010), Predicting behavior in economic games by looking through the eyes of the players, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General
  • Philip Tetlock (2009), Reading Tarot on K Street, Reviews & Essays  
  • Philip Tetlock, G. Mitchell (2009), Implicit bias and accountability systems: What must organizations do to prevent discrimination?, Research in Organizational Behavior, 29: 3-38.  Abstract
  • Philip Tetlock, G. Mitchell (2009), A renewed plea for adversarial collaboration, Research in Organizational Behavior, 29: 71-72.
  • Philip Tetlock, G. Mitchell (2009), Adversarial collaboration aborted, but our offer still stands, Research in Organizational Behavior, 29: 77-79.
  • H. Blanton, J. Jaccard, J. Klick, B. A. Mellers, G. Mitchell, Philip Tetlock (2009), Strong claims and weak evidence: Reassessing the predictive validity of the race IAT, Journal of Applied Psychology, 29: 567-582.  Abstract
  • G. Mitchell, Philip Tetlock (2009), Facts do matter: A reply to Bagenstos, Hofstra Law Review, 37: 937-953.
  • C.T. Tadmor, Philip Tetlock (2009), Disentangling reasons and rationalizations: Exploring perceived fairness in hypothetical societies, Social and Psychological Bases of Ideology and System Justification, New York: Cambridge University Press. P. 8.
  • C.T. Tadmor, Philip Tetlock, K. Peng (2009), Acculturation strategies and integrative complexity: The cognitive implications of biculturalism., Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 40(2): 105-139.  Abstract
  • Philip Tetlock, G. Mitchell (2008), Calibrating prejudice in milliseconds, Social Psychology Quarterly, 71:12-16.  Abstract
  • Philip Tetlock, G. Mitchell, T.L. Murray (2008), The challenge of debiasing personnel decisions: Avoiding both under- and overcorrection, Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 1: 439-443.  Abstract
  • Philip Tetlock, M. Oppenheimer (2008), The boundaries of the thinkable: Environmentalism in the early twenty-first century, Daedalus, 137(2): 59-70.  Abstract
  • Don Moore, Philip Tetlock, Lloyd Tanlu, Max Bazerman (2006), Conflicts of interest and the case of auditor independence: Moral seduction and strategic issue cycling, Academy of Management Review, 31: 10-29.    Abstract
  • Philip Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know? (2005).  

Awards And Honors

  • Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2009
  • Harold Lasswell Award for Distinguished Scientific Contribution in the Field of Political Psychology, 2008
  • Grawemeyer World Order Prize, 2007
  • Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology, American Political Science Association, 2006
  • Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs, 2006
  • MacArthur Fellow in International Security and Conflict Resolution, 1999-2001
  • National Academy of Sciences Award for Behavioral Research Relevant to the Prevention of War, 1999
  • Nevitt Sanford Award for Distinguished Professional Contributions to Political Psychology, International Society of Political Psychology, 1997
  • Philip Converse Book Award for outstanding book in the field published five or more years ago, American Political Science Association (for co-authored book, Reasoning and choice: Explorations in political psychology, 1992
  • Woodrow Wilson Book Award, American Political Science Association (co-recipient with P. Sniderman & R. Brody, for Reasoning and choice: Explorations in political psychology), 1992
  • American Association for the Advancement of Science Prize for Behavioral Science Research, 1988
  • Erik H. Erikson Award of the International Society of Political Psychology, 1987
  • Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 1987
  • Fellow of Division 8 of the American Psychological Association, 1987
  • MacArthur Fellow in International Security and Conflict Resolution, 1987-1989
  • Distinguished Scientific Award for Early Career Contribution to Social Psychology, American Psychological Association, 1986
  • Canada Council Doctoral Fellowship, 1977-1979
  • Yale University Fellowship, 1976-1977
  • British Columbia Psychological Association Gold Medal, 1975
  • Governor-General’s Gold Medal, Award for Undergraduate Academic Excellence, 1975

In The News



  • MGMT776 - Cultiv Judgment Skills

    A world-class poker player defined the difference between serious players and amateurs this way: serious players know the difference between 40-60 and 60-40 propositions. In other words, serious players are well calibrated (skilled at distinguishing what they know from what they don't). This course gives you chances to explore how well calibrated you are in a low-risk setting. The course should appeal to students with interests in strategy, international business, political-risk analysis, and the managerial challenges of maximizing the judgmental accuracy of key personnel. The class will pit its wits against competitors in a global-forecasting tournament sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) - as well as design forecasting exercises around your individual career and business plans. Key challenges include: (a) learning to translate "interesting questions" into "testable propositions," (b) getting into the habit of translating vague hunches into probability metrics and making good use of feedback on how well calibrated you are, (c) applying tools for enhancing accuracy, (d) making solo forecasts - and exploring methods of making team forecast more than the sum of their individual-contributor parts.

  • MGMT933 - Psychological and Sociological Foundations of Research in Management

    This course, is required of all first-year doctoral students in Management and open to other Penn students with permission, provides an introduction to the psychological and sociological roots of management theory and research. The courseis predicated on the belief that to be effective as a contemporary management scholar one needs a background in "the classics." Therefore, we will be reading classics from the fields of psychology and sociology in their original form during this semester.